A.J. Burnett will be a free agent when the season ends. As Tim Williams pointed out in an article today it will require an offer of $14.1M to receive a compensation pick if he were to go elsewhere. Here are some stats:
The Good:
- 3.30 ERA
- 1.215 WHIP
- 9.8 K/9
- 191.0 IP
- 2.80 FIP and 2.92 xFIP indicating he may have been a tad unlucky this year
The Not as Good:
- August ERA 3.79
- September ERA 4.35
- After 9 IP 1ER in an early August game he had more games allowing four or more runs than games 3 or less.
- His ERA after that game was 4.48 the rest of the season. (note I do not like arbitrary date ranges for stats so my apologies for doing it there but there was a big dip after that start)
There are factors beyond the numbers to take into account too. The problem is they are very difficult to judge without really being inside of the locker room. He appears to be a team leader but late in the season there were also moments where he questions his coaches and his teammates. Is this a "fiery leader" or a spoiled professional athlete? Is he showing signs of the guy the Yankees paid to leave or is this merely an unfair perception? I honestly don't know but there are documented cases with the Yankees where it is clear his personality no longer fit there.
Speaking strictly as to what we saw on the field his end of the season performances concerned me in large part that has a bit to do with his age. When a player wears down like that there has to be some concern.
On the other side though his peripherals make it appear that he was incredibly unlucky those last two months. My eyes told me otherwise as when he started to get hit he was hit extremely hard but looking at the stats maybe it was not as bad as I recall.
Much like many things in life it will come down to the almighty dollar for me. For what they are paying this year I'd love to have him back but to start paying him $15M a year may have me looking elsewhere if I was in charge. It would be impossible to deny that he has been an integral part of this organizations turnaround and I believe no matter the final decision that is made it will be a difficult one.
Here is a little more on the subject from Travis Swachik over at the Trib (the full article is here: http://blog.triblive.com/bucco-blog/2013/10/14/monday-morning-mop-up-duty-an-early-look-at-free-agency/):
"The first off-season decision involves AJ Burnett.
Here is a little more on the subject from Travis Swachik over at the Trib (the full article is here: http://blog.triblive.com/bucco-blog/2013/10/14/monday-morning-mop-up-duty-an-early-look-at-free-agency/):
"The first off-season decision involves AJ Burnett.
Knowing the Pirates should have some financial flexibility, I think the club would be wise to extend a qualifying offer to Burnett. Only a few folks know exactly what happened leading up to his Game 5 start, but Burnett was a 4.0 WAR player in 2013. That’s roughly a $20 million value. The one-year, qualifying offer figures to be $14.1 million. And by extending the qualifying offer if Burnett signs elsewhere the Pirates gain a compensation pick, which comes between the first and second round, which might be the most desirable outcome.
Burnett is 37. He’s not a perfect pitcher, but he’s been a very effective one with the Pirates. There’s still gas left in the tank as no Major League starter produced more strikeouts via curve in 2013. And you can never have too much pitching depth.
I don’t think the Pirates – nor should they be – are interested in a multi-year offer."
So... if you were in charge of the Pirates what would you pay to keep A.J. Burnett in the 2014 rotation?