There has been some talk on this blog about whether it makes sense for the Pirates to try to sign free agent Marlon Byrd. There is no question that he brought a spark to the team and solidified what had been black hole in right field. For the season all RFs other than Byrd had a slash line of .229/.291/.363 and OPS of 654. After he was acquired by the Pirates Byrd had a slash line of .310/.340/.480 and OPS of 820 when covering RF.
Would it make sense in a perfect world for the Pirates to sign Byrd? Absolutely. However as we know MLB is not a perfect world. And we know that there are many factors that go into such a decision for Neil Huntington and his staff:
What is a free agent Byrd going to cost in the open market?
What are the Pirates options in RF without Byrd?
What are the Pirates other needs and what will it cost to address those in the free agent market?
How much is it going to cost the PBC for the arbitration eligible Alvarez, Walker, Morton and Melancon.
In this post I am going to try to give an overall view of the historical cost of FA outfielders for the past three years to get a sense of what Byrd might cost. I will also compare Bryd to the other 2014 FA eligible outfielders.
As a reference point in 2013 Bryd had a WAR of 4.1 a wOBA of .364 and an OPS of .847
2010-2011 Free Agents
2010 2010 2010
NAME AGE CONTRACT YEARS WAR wOBA OPS
Berkman 37 8M 1 1.8 .347 .781
Crawford 32 142M 7 7.4 .369 .851
Damon 39 5.25M 1 2.3 .338 .756
Vlady 38 8M 1 1.4 .364 .841
Werth 34 126M 7 4.9 .396 .921
Non Outfielders
Huff 36 22M 2 5.9 .387 .891
Laroche 33 16M 2 0.7 .341 .788
Konerko 37 37.5M 3 3.6 .417 .977
2011-2012 Free Agents
2011 2011 2011
NAME AGE CONTRACT YEARS WAR wOBA OPS
Crisp 33 14M 2 2.0 .305 .693
Cuddyer 34 31.5M 3 2.6 .351 .805
Kubel 31 15M 2 0.7 .335 .766
Willingham 34 21M 3 1.8 .380 .810
Non Outfielders
A. Ramirez 35 36M 3 3.3 .375 .871
2012-2013 Free Agents
2012 2012 2012
NAME AGE CONTRACT YEARS WAR wOBA OPS
Berkman 37 11M 1 0.3 .354 .826
Bourn 30 48M 4 6.2 .326 .739
Cabrera 29 16M 2 4.4 .387 .906
Gomes 32 10M 2 2.0 .376 .868
Hamilton 32 123M 5 4.0 .387 .930
Ludwick 35 15M 2 2.6 .356 .817
Pagan 32 40M 4 4.5 .334 .778
Ross 32 26M 3 2.3 .345 .807
Victorino 32 39M 3 2.9 .310 .704
Non Outfielders
Laroche 33 24M 2 3.4 .361 .853
Swisher 32 56M 4 3.8 .363 .837
Obviously there are some contracts that are aberrations and some variables based on defense, age, steroids and injury history.
Lets look at the expected Free Agent outfielders for this year.
NAME AGE SALARY WAR wOBA OPS CAREER WAR
Byrd 36 0.7M 4.1 .364 .847 18.8
Beltran 36 13M 2.0 .359 .830 64.1
Choo 31 7.4M 5.2 .393 .885 23.6
Crisp 34 7M 3.9 .324 .779 29.3
Cruz 33 5.2M 1.5 .359 .833 13.3
Ellsbury 30 9M 5.8 .343 .781 23.7
Granderson 33 15M 1.4 .319 .723 33.2
I would note that Oakland has a team option on Crisp for 7.5M so he may or may not be on the market this winter.
My take away from all these numbers as they relate to Byrd is that he is going to be able to get a 2-3 year contract somewhere in the total range 18M to 28M.
Kind in mind the Pirates have Tabata under contract for 11.5M for the next 3 years. Also keep in mind that Polanco is probably no more than a year away from making it to the big club. Additionally the PBC still has Lambo and Snider under control. Under those circumstances I don't think it makes sense to give Byrd 18M to 28M to essentially be a place holder for Polanco for a year or so. Nor do I think the PBC will spend that kind of money when they have other needs in both 2014 and 2015.
Looking at it from Byrd's standpoint this season put him in great position to get what is no doubt going to be his last big contract. Financially I think he would be silly to take a one year or lesser deal to stay her. I don't think his one month of having a great time and making the playoff is going to overide the guaranteed 18-28M contract that sets him and his family up for life.
Therefore, I think we are going to be saying Bye Bye Birdie.....