Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Morton's Last Year of Control-How Much Will it Cost?


Charlie Morton is a 3rd year salary arbitration eligible player.  Lets take a look at what similar pitchers earned. I looked for pitchers who were coming off injury shortened seasons or had a similar 2nd year arbitration salary as Morton. Of course keep in mind that Morton's second year salary was low based on his coming off Tommy John surgery in 2012.


Morton's 2013 salary 2M

2013       116INN     7WINS      3.26ERA       1.28WHIP   6.6K/9      0.5WAR
Career     589INN   30WINS      4.70ERA       1.50WHIP   5.9K/9    -0.7WAR


2012

J. Sanchez  2011 Salary 4.8M   2012 Salary 5.6M

2011        101INN    4WINS      4.26ERA        1.44WHIP    9.1K/9      0.0WAR
Career     708INN   38WINS      4.26ERA        1.39WHIP    9.4K/9      6.0WAR

Brandon McCarthy  2011 Salary 1M   2012 Salary 4.275M

2011       170INN     9WINS      3.32ERA        1.13WHIP    6.5K/9      3.2WAR
Career    543INN    29WINS     4.17ERA         1.29WHIP    6.2K/9      7.1WAR

Jeff Karstens 2011 Salary 1.1M  2012 Salary 3.1M

2011      163INN    9WINS       3.38ERA         1.21WHIP    5.3K/9       2.7WAR
Career    501INN  21WINS      4.52ERA          1.37WHIP    4.7K/9       2.9WAR

2013

Edison Volquez  2012 Salary 2.23M  2013 Salary 5.725M

2012    182INN    11WINS      4.14ERA           1.45WHIP     8.6K/9     1.0WAR
Career  679INN   44WINS      4.52ERA            1.48WHIP    8.6K/9     4.2WAR

Jason Hammel  2012 Salary as 3rd year super 2 4.75M  2013 Salary 6.75M

2012    118INN        8WINS     3.43ERA          1.23WHIP      8.6K/9     3.0WAR
Career  850INN     42WINS      4.78ERA          1.44WHIP      6.6K/9     6.9WAR

When looking at these numbers keep in mind a few things.  Both Sanchez and Karstens did not finish the 2011 season due to injuries which presumably kept their 2012 salaries down.  Morton on the other hand missed time early and was healthy at the end of the season.

The other thing I can't quite understand is how with very similar numbers across the board Jason Hammel gets a 3.0WAR and Morton gets a 0.5WAR.  Also Karsten's career numbers are marginally better than Morton's yet he has a career WAR of 2.9 while Morton has a career WAR of -0.7.  This small sample size makes we wonder if WAR for starting pitchers is a good measure of value.  I would welcome any comments from those more versed in sabremetrics if and how WAR should be applied to starting pitchers.

Based on the above I would expect Morton's salary to be about 5M next year.