With Napoli, Hart, Trumbo and Morrison all off the board; Morales being a non starter with the draft pick compensation; and Looney looking for 3 years and 30M; I decided to take a look the remaining 1B who are probably available to the Pirates via a trade. In looking at Smoak, Moreland and Davis what was most striking to me is how similar they are.
1. Justin Smoak. 27 years old and a 2008 first round draft pick (11th pick). He is first year arbitration eligible. Unlike Davis and Moreland he is a switch hitter although not a very good RH hitter (think Neal Walker 2012-2013).
Career offensive numbers:
vs. RHP 1145 AB .229/.323/.397 720OPS 50HR 145RBI tOPS +106
vs. LHP 526 AB .223/.294/.362 656OPS 17HR 59RBI tOPS + 87
K% 21.9 BB/K 0.5
wRC+ 95 (career)
wRC+109(2013)
Defensive numbers:
UZR -0.5 (career) UZR/150 -0.1(career)
UZR -4.2 (2013) UZR/150 -5.0(2013)
WAR:
BR: 1.4(career)
1.1(2013)
Fangraphs -0.1 (career)
0.4 (2013)
2. Mitch Moreland. 28 years old and a 17th round pick. He is first year arbitration eligible. Left Handed hitter. Unlike Smoak and Davis he has played the outfield although not very well (think GI Jones).
Career offensive numbers:
vs. RHP 1080AB .258/.325/.463 788OPS 56HR 150RBI tOPS +107
vs. LHP 318AB .236/.295/.362 657OPS 7HR 36RBI tOPS + 75
K% 20.3 BB/K 0.42
wRC+ 112 (career)
wRC+ 90 (2013)
Defensive Numbers at 1B:
UZR 3.6 (career) UZR/150 4.2 (career)
UZR 0.9 (2013) UZR/150 4.6 (2013)
WAR:
BR: 1.9 (career)
0.6 (2013)
Fangraphs 2.1(career)
0.7(2013)
3. Ike Davis. He will be 27 at start of the season. Like Smoak he was a 2008 1st round pick (18th pick). He is a left handed hitter and has only played 1B. Unlike Smoak and Moreland at the end of last year he was a Super 2 and therefore made 3.125M in 2013. He will be a second year arbitration eligible.
Career offensive numbers:
vs. RHP 1087AB .256/.356/.471 827OPS 55HR 172RBI tOPS+ 115
vs. LHP 401AB .204/.268/.334 602OPS 12HR 47RBI tOPS+ 57
K%24 BB/K 0.50
wRC+ 112 (career)
wRC+ 90 (career)
Defensive numbers:
UZR 7.8 (career) UZR/150 3.0(career)
UZR -1.8(2013) UZR/150 -3.1(2013)
Note his career UZR numbers are skewed by his 2010 10.4 UZR and his 12.4 UZR/150
WAR:
BR: 5.5(career)
0.2(2013)
Fangraphs: 5.5(career)
-0.1(2013)
As you can see the number are very similar. The questions NH will have deal with is whether Davis can get back to his 2011 numbers or whether Smoak can be the hitter he was in the second half of 2013. If he likes Davis is he willing to pay the higher salary of a 2nd year arbitration eligible Ike Davis? Does NH like the superior 1B defense of Moreland coupled with Moreland's flexibility to play RF as well? Most importantly NH will have to consider the acquisition cost of each of these players. However as stated in the introduction the most striking thing to me about the comparison of these three players is how similar they are.
What do the member of the PBC Asylum think NH should do?