It has been a pretty quiet off-season up to this point and if anything happens with the Pirates after this I think we could expect it to be pretty minor (as in minor league deals) or for a reclamation project first baseman. I have seen a lot of different angles taken with articles so I figured I might as well chime in to the conversation.
Marty made a point that I think is quite valid... this team isn't as good as it was on September 30th of last year. The main reasons are Marlon Byrd and A.J. Burnett are gone. To a lesser extent so are Garrett Jones and Justin Morneau but I think most would agree (well we know one that will not) that their combined contributions were pretty minimal and not that difficult to replace. The other positions are in tact, the rotation is similar, and the bullpen is nearly identical.
So why am I so optimistic about this season? Well first off while I usually come across as a glass half full person when discussing the Pirates I am typically in the middle of actual expected results. The last few years I have been towards the mean in my win/loss predictions so it isn't all rainbows and puppy dogs for me.
First let's look at the negatives. The biggest concern is the loss of AJ Burnett and that's quite valid as he put up nearly 200 innings of very good production and that doesn't grow on trees. I personally think he's on a downward trend but that's a different debate as his production last year was real and you must find a way to replace it. After that the concern is first base and one month of Marlon Byrd. Finally there is always concern of regression and I think the bullpen could cause some legitimate fears. They were incredible last year. It's not quite like the Cardinals batting average with runners in scoring position but it is still going to be nearly impossible to repeat.
Now onto the positives... the core. They dealt with so many issues last year ranging from a continued collapse of James McDonald to a long-term injury to arguably their second best player in Starling Marte and they still prevailed. Heck, that group had to depend on Jonathan Sanchez for multiple starts! McCutchen, Alvarez, Walker, and Marte are all in or heading into their prime ages. While one may regress as a group they should improve. The catching position also looks solid. Right field, first base and shortstop should improve as a group, mainly because the production was so bad overall. Add in a prospect like Gregory Polanco and he should be able to put you over the top. I'd love to get production like McCutchen and Marte their first half seasons but even less than that would provide an improvement on 2013. I know there are concerns about Lambo but this isn't exactly Scott Hatteberg replacing Jason Giambi.
If we move to pitching while I don't think you'll get 600 innings out of Liriano, Morton, and Cole I do think they will put up more than the 400 innings they had last year. Add in Jameson Taillon and Nick Kingham in AAA and you have suitable, if not great, young depth. The last couple years there were wild cards and Edinson Volquez provides that again this year. They do not need him to pull a Burnett or Liriano to save this team's season so while I get the reward the risk really isn't that great.
Finally, sure the Pirates do not have Byrd or Burnett but wasn't Burnette added right before spring training and wasn't Byrd added with about 30 games left? This isn't a finished product. There are a lot of ifs but overall I would say the odds point to a very positive season which like usual will come down to avoiding injuries and having that one or two breakout players. This team looks similar to what I saw on the field for the majority of last season with a little more depth. I like their chances to get back to the playoffs.