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http://pbc-asylum.blogspot.com/2014/09/jals-blue-moon-daily-links.html
Things get more interesting as the games get fewer. Cards and Brewers have 12 left and the other 3 contenders have 13. if the Pirates play a pedestrian 6-7 they will end at 85 wins. Cards can reach 85 at 2-10, Brewers at 7-5, Braves at 10-3, and Giants at 3-10.
Pirates are 8-2 last 10 and continuing at that pace would go 10-3 reaching 89 wins. In that case Cards would have to go 6-6. Brewers 11-1, Braves could not catch them, and Giants would have to go 7-6. of course anything can happen but the stats say Cards and Giants hard to catch and Braves unlikely to catch Pirates so the big battle is with the Brewers.
Of course anything can happen and if Cards or Brewers sweep that series while Pirates sweep Sox things would change greatly. Say Cards sweep Brewers and Pirates sweep Sox. Pirates would be 82-70 and Brewers 78-75. In that case Pirates going 5-5 would require Brewers to go 9-0. If Brewers sweep Cards would be 83-70 and Pirates sweep of Sox would put them at 82-70. So a 5-5 Pirate finish would require cards to go 4-5 to tie. A 7-3 Pirates finish would require a 6-3 Cards finish to tie.
Basically it comes to this, Pirates have to win 4 more games than Cards to catch them and 3 more than the Giants to catch them Brewers have to win 2 more than the pirates to catch them. Braves have to win 4 more than the Pirates to catch them.
This is, of course, just a fun exercise with numbers and has no real meaning as the games are all that counts.