I think we all can agree on the following top of the rotation for 2014:
Gerrit Cole
Francisco Liriano
Charlie Morton
Next the question marks but that we can expect to be with the organization:
Wandy Rodriguez (health)
Jeff Locke (performance)
Justin Wilson (move to starter?)
Jameson Taillon (available in July?)
Brandon Cumpton (performance/ability)
Phil Irwin (performance/ability/health)
Stolmy Pimentel (ability)
The main thing I take away from this is no matter what you need to add another starter. So let's look at some options.
A.J. Burnett - This is the obvious option but will it require a full qualifying offer of $14M? That's a lot to pay for a guy who looked to be wearing down at the end of the season. But we went more into AJ specifically here: What is AJ Burnett Worth to You
I think we can rule out the Ervin Santana's and Matt Garza's of the world. A guy like Hiroki Kuroda would probably take a one year deal but doubt he would come to Pittsburgh. So I'll try to stay realistic. Obviously cost will be a major major factor but we'll leave that out for now:
Bronson Arroyo - You want 200 IP and an ERA in the high 3's? He's your man.
Bartolo Colon - You could pay him in cheeseburgers but he's older and with PED issues floating around.
Dan Haren - Kind of a classic Neal Huntington guy. Has a very good history but recently his numbers have dipped. However, his peripherals were pretty darn good last year.
Roberto Hernandez - A rockier past than Haren but somewhat similar mold and add in a move to the NL.
Phil Hughes - See A.J. Burnett a few years ago. Peripherals were good, plus move him out of NY and the AL.
Josh Johnson - I guess it all depends on what the scouts and coaches see. But another classic NH reclamation project.
Jeff Karstens - If this wasn't a Pirates board I would not bring it up. However, I think he would be a nice option as a minor league free agent.
Paul Maholm - He's a great fit at PNC but after 2 1/2 great seasons he fell back into his 2009/2010 mold.
Edison Volquez - His stuff has never really been questioned. It's about putting it together. Could Uncle Ray fix him?
I think we could really narrow that list down to five or six guys but that's quite a few that I would see as realistic options to replace Burnett if he were to retire or if his price tag was unreasonable. If there are questions still about Wandy's health (at least getting to the all star break) I would not be shocked to see them sign two starters which would not leave a lot of cash to fill the holes in the offense. If they had to sign two starting pitchers my guess is right field would be Jose Tabata's at least until July.